Exploding Dice

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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby The Doctor » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:07 pm

Indeed. They let what they know get in the way of figuring the truth out.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Delphinan » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:36 pm

Eh, I felt more like coding than working probability tables & spreadsheets.

So I coded for 1 million draws. Note that these numbers are only for the draw and do not include the character's pool and no reattempt values.

First off: our standard draw, with 10-again & 1-again, a 1 on a down explode = -5:
Code: Select all
Report: Draws criteria:
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
10-again:true
1-again:true
2-again:false
10-again-on-upexplode:true
1-again-on-downexplode:true
2-again-on-downexplode:false
Down-explode-penalty:-5
Value of draw of 1:1
Number of draws to report:1000000

Min     Max     Average Median  % DramaFail     Avg Successes   Avg Succ without Dramatic Failures
-25     58      6.05    5       3.88            0.36            0.38


Second: The typical Beast/Wizened: no 10-again but with 1-again, with 1 on a down explode= -5:
Code: Select all
Report: Draws criteria:
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
10-again:false
1-again:true
2-again:false
10-again-on-upexplode:false
1-again-on-downexplode:true
2-again-on-downexplode:false
Down-explode-penalty:-5
Value of draw of 1:1
Number of draws to report: 1000000

Min     Max     Average Median  % DramaFail     Avg Successes   Avg Succ without Dramatic Failures
-27     10      5.45    6       3.9             0.2            0.2



Yes, pretty dismal # of successes generated overall, but the average draw is only .6 less than the standard draw. This is the penalty of the Beasts/Wizened.

Third: Proposed:10-again & 1-again & 2-again, with 1 or 2 on a down explode= -5:
Code: Select all
Report: Draws criteria:
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
10-again:true
1-again:true
2-again:true
10-again-on-upexplode:true
1-again-on-downexplode:true
2-again-on-downexplode:true
Down-explode-penalty:-5
Value of draw of 1:1
Number of draws to report: 1000000


Min     Max     Average Median  % DramaFail     Avg Successes   Avg Succ without Dramatic Failures
-36     77      5.86    6       7.57            0.36            0.39


So: The proposal would more than half the draw penalty of the Beast (and similar) curse, going from the result of 6 of standard draws to 5.8 instead of 5.4, rounding it shows that the penalty would be eliminated in this respect. Also, the proposal would put the total overall successes of the cursed character back to the level of a non-cursed character, though would double the chance of a dramatic failure.

In short: the proposal would cause no change to a cursed characters overall successes or draw from a non-cursed character but would double the chance of a dramatic failure.

I am going to play with the stats some more for variance, etc. But this is what I got: this makes a character have just as many successes as other characters, but with the increased dramatic failure. The dramatic failure penalty may be a deal-breaker, I think, for some to take these frailties, having the ability to go to the extreme on successes is nice, but the potential lethality of the dramatic failure may doom the character far more easily.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby The Doctor » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:50 pm

Reading that, I actually would appreciate the change. Beasts are supposed to be *really bad* with intelligence. Keeping me from being able to explode up doesn't make me shy away from intelligence tests. Higher chance of dramatic failure would.

For example:
"Hurr durr I'm a beast doktor, trying to evaluate someone's medical condition. Well, my pool's fair, and I only need one (or a few) success(es) to evaluate their condition, so no 10-again doesn't affect me at all. Whee!"

As opposed to...
"Hurr durr, I'm a beast kodtor again! Trying to evaluate someone's medical condition. My pool's fair, and it can explode up, but I have a high chance of bungling it no matter my pool because I'm a derpy Beast. Mayyyyyyyyybe I should leave this to the wizened."
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Delphinan » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:55 pm

The Doctor wrote:Reading that, I actually would appreciate the change. Beasts are supposed to be *really bad* with intelligence. Keeping me from being able to explode up doesn't make me shy away from intelligence tests. Higher chance of dramatic failure would.


One concern would be the higher levels of dramatic failure for Contract usages that depend on a frail Stat, not just Intelligence. Some players would be 'stuck' with a newly lethal Contract.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby The Doctor » Mon Jul 18, 2011 1:58 pm

Hmm. That is pretty valid, I'll have to look over the contract lists for the Xagain stats to see how dangerous that would be.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Fetch » Mon Jul 18, 2011 2:02 pm

On the up side you're be able to get Exceptional Success ever.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Delphinan » Mon Jul 18, 2011 2:09 pm

Fetch wrote:On the up side you're be able to get Exceptional Success ever.


Well, on Omen 5 it reads:
Rites of Spring wrote:Exceptional Success: No additional effect occurs.


So, yeah, not so much the incentive to take a double penalty on dramatic failure here. ;)
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Fetch » Mon Jul 18, 2011 2:14 pm

That's because the effect scales with successes. Aiming for Morality 7 and get five successes over that on the last test and you've got a +/-12 fate instead of a "mere" +/-7. Besides, you're bringing up the only example in CdP of someone using a Contract they are cursed in...
It's a bit of a niche problem.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Delphinan » Mon Jul 18, 2011 2:16 pm

Fetch wrote:That's because the effect scales with successes. Aiming for Morality 7 and get five successes over that on the last test and you've got a +/-12 fate instead of a "mere" +/-7. Besides, you're bringing up the only example in CdP of someone using a Contract they are cursed in...
It's a bit of a niche problem.


Actually I brought up the one I was most familiar with not having the lists of Xagain contracts to go through easily.

But as you say, it is probably a niche problem of no interest to anyone but me. Sorry I contributed.

Pray, continue.
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Re: Exploding Dice

Postby Fetch » Mon Jul 18, 2011 3:09 pm

I do not mean to offend. I apologize if I have.
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